AYITI INTEL – HAITI ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT – Week of December 20-27, 2025

Economic Intelligence,

Published:

Reading time: 5 min.

POST-HOPE/HELP STABILIZATION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CHRISTMAS CALM AFTER HOPE/HELP BREAKTHROUGH

IMF Validation + $1B DR Trade Milestone Mark Stabilization Week

The week of December 20-27, 2025 marks the first full week following the historic HOPE/HELP renewal approval (December 10). Key developments:

🎯 Major Developments:

  1. IMF Second Review Success: Haiti met all program targets, $1.5B net reserves confirmedhaitilibre+1​
  2. DR-Haiti Trade Milestone: $1+ billion Dominican exports to Haiti (2025)—historic firsthaitilibre​
  3. Remittances Confirmed: $4.9B (2025) = 25% of GDP, sustaining economyncbcapitalmarkets+1​
  4. World Bank $80M Advancing: Infrastructure project moving toward Q1 2026 contractsworldbank​

Overall Assessment: STABLE WITH POSITIVE TRAJECTORY

THREE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS

1. IMF VALIDATES ECONOMIC PROGRAM: $1.5B NET RESERVES

Importance: 9/10 – International Confidence Signal

Key Points:

  • All quantitative targets for end-June 2025 metmiragenews+1​
  • Gross reserves: $3.1 billion (7 months of imports)imf+1​
  • Zero monetary financing maintained (no money printing)
  • Social spending increased 34%miragenews​

Why This Matters:

  • Confirms macroeconomic stability despite political/security crises
  • Positions Haiti for future IMF financing ($200M-400M potential)
  • Validates BRH policy credibility
  • Enables 6-12 month business planning horizons (vs 3-6 months)

2. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI TRADE HITS $1 BILLION+ (2025)

Importance: 8/10 – Regional Integration Deepening

Key Points:

  • $1B+ DR exports to Haiti—first time in historyhaitilibre​
  • 1,821 products from 1,212 exportershaitilibre​
  • Top products: Cement (10.39%), bakery (4.59%), plastics, iron/steel
  • Haiti exports TO DR: only $5.77M (down 56.81%)haitilibre​

Why This Matters:

  • Confirms DR as Haiti’s #1 trade partner (60-70% of key imports)
  • Highlights Haiti’s production collapse ($994M trade deficit with DR alone)
  • Creates strategic vulnerability (single-supplier concentration risk)
  • Demonstrates import dependency crisis

3. REMITTANCES $4.9B CONFIRMED – 25% OF GDP

Importance: 8/10 – Diaspora Lifeline Sustained

Key Points:

  • $4.9B annual (2025)—9.2% growth vs 2024haitilibre+1​
  • 25% of GDP (up from 21% in 2024)
  • #2 Caribbean recipient after Dominican Republic ($11.97B)ncbcapitalmarkets​
  • Primary sources: U.S. (62.8%), Canada (10.6%)

Why This Matters:

  • Exceeds all other external financing combined (8-49× larger)
  • Masks economic collapse severity (GDP declining 7th year)
  • Creates unsustainable dependency on diaspora
  • Vulnerable to TPS termination risk (348,000 Haitians at risk)

KEY INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

Currency & Remittance Effects

Gourde Stability Reinforced:

  • Expected range Q1 2026: 128-132 HTG/USD (stable)tradingeconomics+1​
  • $3.1B reserves = 12-18 month buffer
  • Remittances ($4.9B annually) = $408M monthly USD inflow

Diaspora Remittance Strategy:

  • Resume normal amounts + 15-20% inflation adjustment
  • Account for U.S. 1% tax (effective January 1, 2026)
  • MonCash for best rates (130-131 HTG/USD vs banks 131-132)

Top Investment Opportunities

1. World Bank $80M Construction Project

  • Contracts expected Q1 2026 (January-March tendering)worldbank​
  • Prime contractor: 20-35% annual returns
  • Subcontractor/services: 15-25% returns
  • Action: Pre-qualify immediately, form partnerships

2. Textile Sector Restart Services

  • Equipment sales, worker training, logistics
  • 20-40% annual returns during 2026-2027 ramp-up
  • Action: Contact restarting factories January 2026

3. DR-Haiti Trade Facilitation

  • Warehousing, transport, customs brokerage for $1B+ trade
  • 25-35% annual returns
  • Action: Establish Dajabón/Ouanaminthe facilities

CRITICAL RISKS TO MONITOR

1. TPS Termination Risk (40% probability)

  • 348,000 Haitians at deportation risk
  • Potential $174-348M annual remittance reduction
  • Court decisions expected Q1-Q2 2026

2. Gang Violence Expansion (50% probability)

  • Current: Port-au-Prince 85-90%, Artibonite 50%
  • Risk: National Route 1 (DR import corridor) could be severed

3. Elections August 2026 Postponement (40% probability)

  • Security challenges, voter registration gaps
  • If postponed: aid delayed, HOPE/HELP 2028 renewal vulnerable

DIASPORA INVESTMENT GUIDANCE

For Risk-Averse:

  • 70% USD, 25% HTG, 5% opportunistic
  • Focus: World Bank $80M (subcontractor only)
  • Avoid: Direct textile, real estate

For Moderate-Risk:

  • 50% USD, 30% HTG, 20% opportunistic
  • World Bank (40%), textile services (30%), trade facilitation (20%)
  • Expected returns: 22-36% blended annual

For Aggressive:

  • 30% USD, 40% HTG, 30% opportunistic
  • World Bank prime contractor, textile direct, real estate, remittance tech
  • Expected returns: 20-35% blended annual
  • Accept 30-50% capital loss in adverse scenarios

BOTTOM LINE

Post-HOPE/HELP stabilization achieved:

✅ Textile sector secured through 2028
✅ IMF validates macroeconomic stability
✅ Remittances sustaining economy ($4.9B)
✅ World Bank infrastructure advancing
✅ DR trade deepening ($1B+ milestone)

But recovery fragile—requires:

⚠️ Gang violence reduction (currently 85-90% Port-au-Prince)
⚠️ Elections success (August 30, 2026)
⚠️ Remittance sustainability (TPS risk)
⚠️ Textile sector actual restart (Q1-Q2 2026)

Probability of sustained recovery (2026-2027): 35-45%

Contact: kreyolgenius1@gmail.com
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